UNCERTAINTY IS CERTAIN
Volatility is a constant – to a degree – in this globally interdependent world.
by Audrey Lynn
We are within an era of global volatility in markets and currencies, it is going to remain so. Our world economies are interrelated and dependent.
This era is not going to have the growth and expanse “as a whole” like in years past, but rather in specific locations – in industries and in companies that will emerge and or grow as demand is or increases in various parts of the world.
Individual companies will come and go, due to competition, those will fold those who are holding too much credit debt and while holding inventory (that becomes outdated/obsolete) will take them down for example. Poor management will ruin even a good company through this stormy sea of an economic reality as another variable or factor of company failure.
In cases of companies and countries-those that are not so transparent or ethical, predictions of short or long term future changes are not readily forecastable.
So with that, I say the rules of diversification are still valid vs. chasing the fastest growing companies as your sole strategy. Banks and billionaires will get there first. Do not lag too far behind good decision making.
One can successfully gain good growth returns-during this bear market but it is good to be in a cash position and to carefully watch and buy when things go further down-you will not time the exact bottom. You can do dollar averaging on the way down or up. I feel and it is my opinion and therefore – I predict a market decline of another 20-30% – as an aggregate from this date forward in the year ahead. I hope not but it is very likely as stocks are over valued. This is because of the natural downward corrective cycles that are historic, debts and an unemployment rate I see as really being worse and not acknowledged. Unemployment will hinder economics and sales.
There will be more jobs lost so we need to follow an age appropriate and risk tolerance appropriate individual-investor plan or small business investment plan. You need to make this for yourself. You need to make a lifestyle for yourself too that is sustainable, and have a savings appropriate for this world and for your age. Make your retirement savings for yourself, employer made and coupled with your own. Know your work place benefits as this is part of your risk management plan.
RECESSION — or not ?
My absolute recommendation, if we go into a recession (or not) is to pay off credit card debt as much as possible-and other debt that is very costly to pay off if held long. My view too is to change habits of using credit card as if it were cash. Use it for not having to carry the cash you have-a short term convenience.
Work and live on a budget, save with liquidity of at least 6 months of non discretionary income of expenses – should you have an emergency need or lose your job. If you lose your job and experience inflation, you will protect yourself some from both and you will also stay with habits of living within a smaller means and in budget.
A slower growth in the world economy will impact on all of us. We need to change our lifestyles appropriately to live financially well today and through our tomorrows.
This is an educated and personal view or opinion and for those that read, solely to help you see that it is important to save, invest timely in a bear market when prices of stocks and mutual funds will be lower in price, to have a cash position in hand to do this, to live on a budget in terms of saving and spending, to invest and pay off “bad debt” credit cards and have a planned financial strategy-see some of the other posts.
Ask for what you want to see here.
Take care of your finances and be well.